KEY POINTS
- Nigeria exported 55.39 million barrels of crude in January and February 2026 while the Dangote refinery kept struggling with a domestic feedstock shortage.
- The Lekki-based refinery received only 29.21 million barrels between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, about 26.9 percent of the 108.74 million barrels it needed.
- NNPC says it is sourcing third-party crude through its global trading network and lifted March supply to 10 cargoes, still short of the plant’s monthly requirement.
Aliko Dangote’s $20 billion Lekki refinery is running on a fraction of the crude it needs, even as Nigeria shipped 55.39 million barrels of oil overseas in the first two months of 2026.
Central Bank of Nigeria data show the country exported 31.31 million barrels in January and 24.08 million in February. Production averaged 1.46 million barrels a day in January and 1.31 million in February, with daily exports at 1.01 million and 860,000 respectively. Total output for the two months reached 81.94 million barrels, leaving 26.55 million for local refineries.
Those export figures stand in sharp contrast to the story at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, a 650,000-barrel-per-day facility that has spent months chasing feedstock.
Months of missed deliveries
The refinery needs about 19.77 million barrels of crude a month to run at full capacity. Between October 2025 and mid-March 2026, it received 29.21 million barrels against an estimated 108.74 million barrels required, or roughly 26.9 percent of the volume it asked for.
Monthly deliveries came in at 4.55 million barrels in October, 6.45 million in November, 4.30 million in December, 5.65 million in January and 4.66 million in February. Between March 1 and 15, only 3.6 million barrels arrived. The shortfall over five and a half months reached about 79.53 million barrels.
A senior management source inside the refinery told The Punch the situation violated the Petroleum Industry Act, which bars crude exports before the country meets its own demand. Nigeria, through the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, or NNPC, kept exporting while the Lekki plant ran dry.
Dangote’s team has long complained that upstream producers prefer foreign buyers. As the Iran-US war squeezes global oil supply, the refinery raised petrol pump prices above N1,300 a liter before walking them back to N1,250.
NNPC pushes for alternatives
In a statement, the refinery said it receives just five cargoes a month from NNPC when it needs 13, and pays for those barrels at international market prices plus a premium. “The high crude cost is compounded by the fact that Nigeria’s upstream producers have failed to supply crude oil to the refinery as required under the Petroleum Industry Act, forcing us to source a substantial portion through international traders who charge an additional premium,” the company said.
NNPC officials, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity, told The Punch the national oil company is sourcing third-party crude through its global trading network and will sell it to the refinery at internationally competitive rates. They acknowledged a shortfall stemming from volumes earlier buyers had front-sold but rejected the idea of a deliberate squeeze. “NNPC Limited remains fully committed to supporting domestic refining, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery,” one official said.
Dangote, president of the Dangote Group and Africa’s richest man, told Bloomberg the refinery received 10 cargoes in March, paying for six in naira and four in dollars, a step up from the roughly five-cargo monthly rhythm of late 2024. That is still short of the 19 million barrels the plant needs every month. Eche Idoko, publicity secretary of the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria, said local refiners will keep pushing for steadier supply and warned that modular plants cannot turn a profit without reliable feedstock.