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PHILADELPHIA – A pause before a perilous turn or a countdown to a peace deal?
US President Donald Trump’s abrupt move to offer an open-ended ceasefire may present a way out of the war with Iran that he launched a little less than two months ago. Without admitting retreat.
On paper, the indefinite ceasefire can secure exactly what Mr Trump desires: a potential exit from a deeply unpopular war, avoiding escalation while claiming his military objectives have already been met.
Iran, facing both existential stakes and internal divisions, remains unlikely to capitulate.
But it may see an opportunity.
It could opt for a calibrated de-escalation through reopening the Strait of Hormuz and trading its stockpile of highly enriched uranium for sanctions relief or the ability to access billions in frozen assets.
Washington wants more: constraints on Iran’s missile programme and an end to support for proxy militias, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Iran, in turn, is likely to demand an end to Israel’s campaign in Lebanon and firm guarantees against renewed US or Israeli strikes.
None of these are easy concessions. But in a frozen conflict, both sides can package compromise as victory.
They could also use the ceasefire to reconstitute depleted capabilities. Both continue to say they have their fingers on the trigger during the ceasefire.
Mr Trump chose to put the ball in Tehran’s court on April 21 after Iran refused to confirm it would participate in a new round of peace talks in Islamabad, prompting US Vice President J.D. Vance to shelve his plans to fly to Pakistan.
Mr Trump said the Iranian government was “seriously fractured” and he was prolonging the two-week long ceasefire “until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal”.
In the meantime, he said he had directed the US military to continue the naval blockade of Iran’s ports and “remain ready and able” to resume the war if needed.
Iran, which appeared to be taken off-guard, reacted with open distrust.
Mr Mahdi Mohammadi, a national security adviser to Iran’s parliamentary Speaker and chief negotiator, Mr Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, brushed off Mr Trump’s action as holding little value.
“Trump’s ceasefire extension means nothing. The losing side cannot dictate terms,” Mr Mohammadi wrote on X. He called the blockade “no different from bombardment” and warned it should be met with force.
Iranian military officials echoed the threat, vowing a swift and “powerful” response to any renewed attack. A formal position from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has yet to emerge.
Still, signs point to a regime preparing to spin the moment as a strategic win.
Mr Trump’s indefinite ceasefire will be read in Tehran as evidence of its own strength, said Dr Mehrzad Boroujerdi, an expert on Iranian politics and the Dean of the College of Arts, Sciences and Education at the Missouri University of Science and Technology.
“If Trump continues to threaten, articulate maximalist demands and board Iranian ships, then Tehran thinks it is embarrassing to negotiate. Trump has now shown his hand and that is he is not interested in resuming the war.
“Iran takes that as a win,” he told The Straits Times.
But they are also signaling that unless there is a clear change in US behaviour or promises of concessions, they are not in a rush to negotiate.
He said he agreed with assessments that show an intra-regime power struggle between Mr Ghalibaf and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Commander Major-General Ahmad Vahidi.
“However, the extent of this fracture is not clear,” Dr Boroujerdi said, adding that the regime will use the pause to further trade messages through the Pakistanis until they think they are on the verge of a real long-term deal.
“I think it is fair to say that active fighting is now less probable than before,” he added. “Resumption of war does not make much sense for either side.”
Other analysts were more cautious. Dr Raphael Cohen, the director of the National Security Program at the RAND School of Public Policy, said the situation remained delicately perched.
“I’m not going to call the war over just yet,” he said, adding the question remained as to who blinked first.
“While I don’t think either side is particularly eager to go back to a live conflict, it’s easy how a misstep can spiral into a return to hostilities,” he told ST.
For Washington, the naval blockade remains its strongest card. It imposes direct economic pressure while creating a de facto quid pro quo: if Iran disrupts maritime traffic, the US can choke off Iranian trade, Dr Cohen said.
That leverage could shape a deal. Earlier talks already exposed a narrow but real negotiating space: Iran floated a five-year pause on its nuclear programme; the US pushed for 20.
“That’s a gap,” Dr Cohen said. “But there is at least a starting point.”
“We’ll see what the Iranians come back with and we’ll go from there,” he said.
For now, the war stands suspended, with both sides still holding the trigger. But Mr Trump seems to have blinked first.