What levers can Turkey use against Israel if their war of words escalates?

The war of words between Turkey and Israel has intensified in recent weeks, exposing a deepening rift between the two regional powers.

The latest round of hostiles began when the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s office filed charges against 35 individuals, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for last year’s attack against the Global Sumud Flotilla in international waters.

The prosecutor’s charges, which sought lengthy jail terms, were seen by Netanyahu as an escalatory step.

In an election year, the Israeli prime minister needed to protect his image, especially with the US ceasefire with Iran denting his popularity at home.

So, in response, Netanyahu took to X and accused Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of massacring his own citizens – the Kurds.

For Netanyahu, chastising Erdogan may have been a necessary move to help him score political points and win over some undecided voters.

At the same time, the Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett also decided to wade into the dispute and unleashed a barrage of inflammatory remarks against Turkey.

Bennett described Turkey as the “new Iran” and had earlier hinted at possible action against Ankara, saying “after Iran, we won’t stay idle”.

Rather than mere rhetoric, the current war of words have sparked fears that the two countries could be on a collision course.

It’s worth remembering that sharp disagreements already exist between the two countries over Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, the arrival of the new government in Syria, and broader regional rivalries – including Israel’s deepening ties with Greece and Cyprus.

So, what would happen if Turkey and Israel took the drastic step of severing diplomatic relations and entered into a confrontation?

Oil flows

Many have argued that Turkey could stop the flow of Azerbaijani oil through the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline if its national security were threatened.

The oil reportedly supplies a large share of Israel’s energy needs, sustaining nearly 50 percent of its oil consumption.

Despite Turkey’s trade embargo on Israel, in place since May 2024, the oil has continued to flow, with traders and buyers reportedly using complex arrangements to maintain the flow, including the use of a shadow fleet.

In the event that Turkey uses its leverage over Azerbaijan and shuts the valves – it would certainly create short-term disruptions, but it’s uncertain for how long.

Currently, there aren’t any international energy sanctions on Israel, and it could purchase oil on the open market.

Moreover, Israeli officials have long argued that buying oil from Azerbaijan serves to maintain good relations with Baku, and that the Azeris seek to honour that strategic partnership.

Airspace

Another frequently discussed punitive step could see Turkey close its airspace to Israeli civilian flights. This could lead to price hikes for Israeli and international airlines.

Longer routes would mean higher fuel consumption, increased crew hours, and potential scheduling disruptions, all of which would translate into higher ticket prices for Israelis and reduced profitability for airlines.

Reaching destinations such as Russia and Azerbaijan might become more complicated, but those difficulties could be mitigated by flying over the Black Sea.

Also, other flights could be rerouted around Turkey.

Israel’’s access to alternative air corridors – including over Saudi Arabia and other regional airspaces that have gradually opened in recent years – significantly reduces the strategic impact of any Turkish restriction.

What about bilateral trade?

Turkey’s bilateral trade with Israel has fallen substantially since the trade embargo but some Turkish products still reach Israel through third countries.

Israeli tourist arrivals, despite reaching tens of thousands in 2025, are also not significant enough for Israel to suffer greatly if Ankara were to block its citizens from travelling to Turkey.

Ankara’s limited leverage over Israel stems from the lack of real interdependence between the two countries.

Bilateral trade had once been highly profitable for Turkey, but much of it was halted over the genocide in Gaza.

One potential source of leverage might have been the long-discussed EastMed pipeline, which was supposed to bring gas from Israel and Palestine to Turkey for export to Europe.

But Israel’s war on Gaza has effectively killed that project.

Beyond building up its military, investing in its defence industry, and strengthening its deterrent capabilities, Ankara appears to be trying to shape Israeli behaviour by deepening its alignment with Nato countries and realigning itself with regional heavyweights such as Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.

Turkey seems to believe that its complex relationship with the European Union, its major role in European security architecture, its unique ties with both Russia and Ukraine, and its growing relations with Africa and Asia will provide enough layers of protection to prevent any serious escalation in the future.

Time will tell.

A version of this story appears in Turkey Unpacked, Middle East Eye’s biweekly look inside Turkey’s biggest stories. Sign up here.