As the race to the 2027 general elections draws nearer, the drama, musical chairs are reverberating. Let me begin with the most obvious. Anybody that witnessed the advent of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic in May 1999, would be amazed at the sorry state of the Peoples Democratic party (PDP). This was Nigeria’s dominant party. At a time it controlled no less than 29 states and held sway in both chambers of the National Assembly. It had near total control such that its leaders boasted that their party would rule Nigeria for 60 years; and it governed our country for a whooping 16 years, the longest so far.
However, the ‘almighty’ PDP is today a shadow of itself with only two governors sheltering under its shrinking umbrella. Many of its legislators and governors have decamped. True, this is not the first time such high profile cross carpeting is happening. In the run up to the 2015 general elections, many PDP legislators and five PDP governors crossed over to the APC (a new party formed from the merger of the defunct AC, CPC, ANPP, a faction of APGA and some PDP governors and national assembly legislators that called themselves new PDP. But defections in recent times have befuddled observers. Altogether, nine of the 12 PDP governors that were inaugurated at take-off of the current administration in May, 2023 have pitched their tents with the ruling APC.
Never in the history of Nigeria’s democratic journey have we witnessed such mass defection of opposition governors to a ruling party. Of the three PDP governors still standing, one decamped to the Accord Party while the other two are still floating in the air. Nonetheless, the old PDP must not be allowed to die for, having ruled Nigeria for the longest period of time, its name and symbol, the umbrella, is still etched in the consciousness of many Nigerians.
Defections in the National Assembly were not without some drama. I shall mention just a few. Senate President Godswill Akpabio refused to acknowledge a defection letter from an APGA Senator from Abia state to opposition ADC on the ground that there is no division in APGA; division within a party, like having factions within it is one of the constitutional requirements for its politicians to move to another party. However, in the House of Representatives, Speaker Tajudeen Abbas allowed the House spokesman’s decampment request from APC to Labour Party, to sail through without let or hindrance notwithstanding that there is no division in the APC.
I doff my scarf for Senator Seriake Dickson (immediate-past governor of Bayelsa state) who defected to a brand new party, NDC, which he founded himself. NDC is one of two new political parties registered recently by INEC. In this regard Dickson showed both initiative and courage by not following the mass of his PDP colleagues to the ADC. Why the new ADC members composed mainly of old hands with vast political experience did not follow this model of beginning afresh on sure footed ground rather than the shenanigans they are currently witnessing in the party, I cannot fathom. If the new ADC stalwarts are accusing the ruling party of putting spanners in their works, that is a lame excuse for. They ought to have thought of all possible scenarios and mapped out counter measures to ward them off. It is called strategic thinking. Creativity is one of the qualities for leadership. Leadership is a calling (not all are called) the essence of which is to serve. The leader gives up his/her personal interests for the greater good.
Hon. Imo Ugochinyere, the lawmaker representing Ideato North/South federal constituency, a staunch PDP member, also did not follow the crowd to ADC but instead went to a relatively unknown APP. This party has no elected president, governor or legislator; nothing practically. But it is not totally unknown. When the then Governor Orji Uzor Kalu of Abia state was having problems getting his preferred successor on the ballot as PDP governorship candidate, the President Olusegun Obasanjo administration having chosen Chief Onyeama Ugochukwu as its flag bearer instead, Kalu founded the APP as an alternative campaign vehicle. It is a testament of now Senator Kalu’s capacity and fighting spirit that he was still able to deliver his then chief of staff, Theodore Orji, as Abia governor under this generally unknown APP and against the then mighty PDP.
Another interesting scenario playing out is the rather peculiar situation where the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) minister Nyesome Wike apparently controls two parties in his home state of Rivers and Abuja. We have had a government of national unity in the previous republics where the ruling party invited some opposition members into its cabinet. But what we have today is not a government of national unity because the FCT minister is the only opposition member in President Bola Tinubu’s cabinet. Besides, the minister has always professed his alignment with the ruling APC government while remaining a staunch member of the opposition PDP. Rivers state governor, Sim Fubara, had decamped to the APC. Nevertheless, in the last bye- election in Rivers, all three APC candidates were allies of the minister. For the FCT council elections, Wike used his political sagacity to get the PDP candidate for Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC) to withdraw for the APC candidate. He also got the APC candidate for Gwagwalada to step down for his PDP counterpart. APC won five of the six councils and the PDP one. No sooner had the lone PDP Gwagwalada council chairman been sworn-in than he defected to APC. As it is, the minister is the de facto leader of PDP and APC in Rivers state. And this begs the question, what is the political standing of Governor Fubara?
PDP’s Nasarawa state governorship candidate for the 2023 polls recently crossed over to APC where he was warmly received by his new associates. Barely one week after, he ran back to PDP. What happened? Immaturity? Your guess is as good as mine. Former Kano Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso after months of dithering finally decamped to ADC. Both godfather and godson( Kano state governor) are now in different camps.
And now to the most recent twist. President Tinubu a fortnight ago visited Ogun state for commissioning of some projects undertaken by Governor Adedapo Abiodun. Among those in the governor’s entourage to welcome Mr. President was former President Obasanjo. The surprise was that Obasanjo was decked in a uniform ankara dress that had Tinubu’s infinity symbol. This got tongues wagging: Is Baba Iyabo about to align? It all began to make sense when Obasanjo’s daughter who is aspiring to be governor of Ogun state under the APC banner visited the president at his private residence in Lagos penultimate Monday for a closed door meeting. The speculation is that Iyabo Obasanjo would be the running mate to APC’s anointed gubernatorial candidate for Ogun state. All eyes are now on the forthcoming primaries of the parties as they choose their flag bearers for the 2027 presidential, governorship and National Assembly elections.