Trump risks showdown with Xi before summit over Hormuz blockade

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US President Donald Trump’s bid to block Iran from using the Strait of Hormuz chokes a key Chinese energy supply and risks a showdown with Chinese President Xi Jinping a month before the two leaders are set to meet in Beijing.

Mr Xi broke his near seven-week silence over the Iran war on April 14, warning the world order is “crumbling into disarray”, while pledging to play a “constructive role” in the Middle East.

Ramping up its own rhetoric, the Foreign Ministry in Beijing blasted the US President’s naval blockade imposed this week as “dangerous and irresponsible”.

The stronger language out of Beijing underscores how Mr Trump’s war in the Middle East is testing a fragile detente between the world’s biggest economies.

US threats to intercept, divert or capture ships violating its blockade risk a confrontation between Chinese aligned vessels and American Navy ships, potentially putting Beijing in a difficult spot even if it wants to avoid directly challenging the blockade.

The fate of one such vessel, a US-sanctioned tanker linked to China but unaffiliated with the government, showed the potential risks of miscalculation.

That ship – the Rich Starry – sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on April 14 before appearing to U-turn as it entered the Gulf of Oman, tracking data showed.

“If the US seeks to use this badly bungled war to harm China’s interests, I believe China has many cards to play that would ensure the US gains far less than it loses,” Mr Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of China’s nationalist tabloid Global Times, wrote on April 13 in a blog post. 

So far, there is no sign that Mr Trump’s visit to Beijing planned for mid-May will be delayed.

On April 14, he met US ambassador to China David Perdue to prepare for the trip, which would be the first to the nation by a US president since he last visited in 2017.

But the mood is darkening. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has blasted China as an unreliable partner to the world by “hoarding” oil, while US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer last week warned that Beijing’s ties with Iran were complicating the relationship. 

The Financial Times reported on April 15 that Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite that gave it a powerful new capability to target US military bases.

Shortly after, Mr Trump told Fox Business that he had exchanged letters with Mr Xi over weapons reports, claiming the Chinese leader had responded by saying “essentially, he’s not doing that”. 

China is “very happy” with Mr Trump’s efforts to open the Strait of Hormuz, the US leader wrote on social media, predicting Mr Xi would give him a “big, fat, hug” in Beijing.

Mr Trump had earlier threatened 50 per cent tariffs on countries arming Tehran, after separate reports China was planning to give its long-time diplomatic friend Iran anti-missile weapons – claims Beijing called a “smear” campaign.

While China generally avoids supplying weapons to overseas wars, it has provided Russia with dual-use components.

Any decision to impose tariffs or otherwise hurt China’s interests threatens to upend a one-year truce – a move that would almost certainly prompt China to again retaliate by cutting off rare earths.

Beijing controls around 90 per cent of permanent magnets made with the minerals crucial to American manufacturing.

In 2025, China imposed sweeping export controls on those metals to counter Mr Trump’s tariffs and could quickly tighten restrictions.

As the conflict drags, it is also possible that Mr Trump hopes hitting China’s oil imports will encourage Beijing to pressure Tehran to come to the table, said Bloomberg Economics Jennifer Welch, after peace talks over the weekend in Pakistan ended in failure.

“The risk, if that is Trump’s plan, is that China cushions higher oil costs at home, and strikes back with its own sanctions,” added Ms Welch. China could also hit back by restricting soya bean purchases, broad imports of which fell to a one-year low in the month after the war began.

But for some in Beijing, Mr Trump’s latest moves to pressure China suggest he is boxed in by the war in Iran. 

“The US is passing the bucks onto China as it is incapable of reopening the Strait of Hormuz,” said former Chinese diplomat Wang Yiwei, who is director of Renmin University’s Institute of International Affairs. “When Washington can’t win the war with Iran, it blames Beijing.”

China’s leader is welcoming a parade of dignitaries in Beijing this week, as he portrays Beijing as a force for stability to countries around the world responding to an energy crisis.

Mr Xi pledged to play a “constructive role” in the Middle East during a April 14 meeting with Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince – widely seen as the next leader of the United Arab Emirates. He also sat down with Russia’s top diplomat Sergey Lavrov and Vietnamese chief To Lam on April 15.

That flurry of diplomacy comes as the US and Iran are looking to arrange a second round of negotiations before an April 7 ceasefire expires, with a two-week extension under consideration, according to a source familiar with the matter.

While China has emerged as among the most resilient Asian economies, thanks to its vast oil reserves and a robust renewable energy sector, the US blockade of Hormuz has broader implications about freedom of navigation.  

“China has long feared that its access to energy might be blocked at the Strait of Malacca, especially by the US in the context of a war,” said think-tank Defense Priorities’ senior fellow and director of military analysis Jennifer Kavanagh.

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto last week touted his country’s leverage over that shipping artery, highlighting in a speech that approximately 70 per cent of East Asia’s energy and trade passes through Indonesian waters. “Do we even realise how important Indonesia is?” he asked.

The free passage of vessels through choke points like Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca is protected under principles laid out in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

While the US never ratified the treaty, it played a key role in the document’s drafting and its almost 300-ship navy has served as chief enforcer of the rules. 

One Chinese scholar warned of dangerous precedents being set in global shipping, saying even Iran’s use of the renminbi for Hormuz toll payments should not be seen as a win for China, given the risk of secondary sanctions.

The US Treasury Department warned on April 14 that it is ready to take actions against foreign financial institutions that support Iran.

“From the perspective of international law and the grand narrative of great power competition, China’s optimal strategy in the Hormuz crisis is by no means to maximize local renminbi settlement gains,” scholar on international law Ye Yan of Southwest University of Political Science and Law, wrote in a journal article.

With weeks to go until Mr Trump’s trip to Beijing, much uncertainty remains over what will be on the agenda – and how the world will look. 

Mr Trump already delayed his meeting to game the Iran war, said Renmin University’s Professor Wang.

“All these gambits are aimed at serving his negotiations,” added Prof Wang. “Trump had hoped to visit China as a winner of the war, but now the war has become his Waterloo.” BLOOMBERG