WASHINGTON/ISLAMABAD – The US and Iran failed to kick off a second round of peace talks despite a last-minute push by Pakistan.
After days of anticipation, the stalling of talks – slated to take place on April 25 – delivered a blow to Islamabad’s efforts to broker a settlement to end the two-month-old war.
US President Donald Trump on April 25 called off a planned trip by his special envoys – son-in-law Jared Kushner and Mr Steve Witkoff – to Islamabad for round two of peace negotiations with Iran, saying the Islamic Republic had “offered a lot, but not enough” to merit new discussions.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi instead made two separate visits to Islamabad on April 25 and April 26, with Axios reporting that a new proposal was made to the US and conveyed through Pakistani mediators.
The failure to get the US and Iran back to the negotiating table underscores the limits of Pakistan’s mediation efforts, led by military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir along with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Although a ceasefire since early April has largely held, the US and Iran remain deadlocked on the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has choked off supplies of crude, fuel and natural gas.
Iran has also resisted US demands to totally roll back its nuclear programme.
Under the Obama administration, it took 20 months to negotiate a deal with Iran on its nuclear programme, and it is unrealistic to expect a meaningful resolution to the crisis in a short time, said Mr Adam Weinstein, deputy director at the Quincy Institute in New York.
He said: “Pakistan can provide a venue and momentum, but it can’t force either side to compromise. Mr Trump’s approach is to shoot first, bring a loaded gun to the negotiating table, and demand surrender.
“That may have worked briefly in places like Venezuela, but it is unlikely to work with a country like Iran.”
The stalled negotiations were preceded by weeks of shuttle diplomacy orchestrated by Pakistan.
Two weeks ago, Islamabad hosted marathon talks between United States Vice-President J.D. Vance and an Iranian delegation, which failed to deliver a peace deal.
Field Marshal Munir then visited Tehran a few days later to mediate further. Mr Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon shortly after.
Expectations were high that Pakistan would pull off a second round of talks from April 25 to April 26 that would lay the groundwork for an end to the war. However, ahead of the meeting, both sides were sending conflicting messages about the prospects of talks.
Pakistani officials on April 24 said Mr Araghchi was arriving in Islamabad to advance new peace talks with the US.
Iranian officials then quickly denied Mr Araghchi was in the city for talks, saying he was instead in Pakistan for a bilateral visit.
By the evening of April 25, he had left Islamabad for Oman – by which time Mr Trump had called off the visit by his team. Mr Araghchi then returned to Islamabad on April 26.
Mr Araghchi said he discussed with Pakistan the conditions under which talks with the US can continue, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported on April 27. He was speaking ahead of his visit to Russia on the same day to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Dr Christopher Clary, associate professor of political science at the University at Albany, said: “A mediator that could end this conflict on terms Washington deems acceptable would be viewed globally as a miracle worker.
“A mediator that fails would merely be a normal country. The problem is Pakistan wanted to be viewed as a miracle worker.”
Islamabad on April 26 began lifting security restrictions that were in place for several weeks, in further signs that talks between the two sides are unlikely to happen soon.
Police checkpoints were taken down, universities announced the resumption of in-person classes and hiking trails on the periphery of the city had re-opened.
Mr Trump has continued to offer praise for Field Marshal Munir and Prime Minister Sharif despite holding back envoys for new talks. The Iranian ambassador also thanked Pakistani authorities and Islamabad residents for their support.
Mr Burzine Waghmar, a member of the SOAS South Asia Institute at the University of London, said: “It’s beyond Pakistan’s remit and ability to bring both to the table.
“The Pakistanis have given it their all. Perhaps, they will realise how the Turks too found it difficult to mediate in Istanbul before the end-February war.”
Without a lasting peace deal, it is unclear how long a ceasefire will hold and when the vital Strait of Hormuz can be reopened.
Pakistan, in particular, has been hit hard by the energy crisis. Rolling blackouts in Islamabad and fuel shortages are hurting citizens, and undermining an already fragile economic recovery.
Dr Clary said: “Pakistan is especially exposed to the global energy shock. It has anaemic economic growth, high levels of import dependence and substantial flows of remittances from the Gulf.
“The longer this goes on, the worse it is for Pakistan. That is the biggest cost Pakistan will suffer if mediation fails.” BLOOMBERG