Fertiliser shortages due to the Iran war are a concern for developing countries, the head of the United Nations trade agency said on Tuesday.
Pamela Coke-Hamilton, executive director of the International Trade Centre (ITC), told Reuters during an interview that “The more immediate issue is fertiliser, because that then affects food security and food security is always the basis for stability.”
Coke-Hamilton, whose agency focuses on promoting trade for developing countries, noted that a third of global urea normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran and the United States are blockading.
“There are significant issues with respect to availability of fertilisers, and also there’s a timeline for agriculture in terms of ensuring you have enough for the next harvest, which is being missed now,” she told Reuters in an interview.
On Monday, the U.N. said that a diplomatic push was underway on a U.N.-led proposal to ensure safe passage for fertiliser shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The ITC said dependence on nitrogen fertilisers from Gulf producers is highest in several Asian and African developing countries, such as Kenya, Uganda, South Africa, Thailand, and Sri Lanka.
Shortages typically lead to reduced fertiliser use and lower yields, rather than changes in harvesting time, with this effect more pronounced in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where production is more dependent on rains, planting windows are narrower, and farmers are more sensitive to input costs, the ITC said.
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ITC, however, said alternative suppliers, particularly in North Africa, could help fill the gap, with Egypt holding a potential $1.6 billion of untapped exports and Algeria a further $1.3 billion.
Countries such as Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Angola, and Libya may benefit from increased oil revenues, but these gains would be limited as all but Kazakhstan remained net importers of refined products, it said.
Hundreds of thousands of tourists used to visit the Zapata Swamp – one of Cuba’s top eco-tourism hotspots – every year.
Higher natural gas prices may benefit countries such as Algeria, Malaysia, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, but expansion of supply is likely to be limited in the short term, the ITC added.