Not Our Battle! By Wole Olaoye
Africa doesn’t have a canine within the struggle happening within the Center East. “Operation Epic Fury” is a struggle between a tag workforce of a lion and a polar bear on the one hand and a honey badger and its military of unseen Tasmanian devils on the opposite. What we now have learnt thus far is that the principles of warfare are being re-written earlier than our very eyes. We have now additionally seen that the world is extra interconnected and nations extra interdependent than the superpowers are ready to confess.
Whichever method the hostilities finish, the purpose has been made that one can solely predict the start of a struggle; the variables that decide its period and consequence are legion. Furthermore, we now have seen that asymmetry has two sides—in relation to armaments (the place the god of struggle sides with superior firepower) and within the case of endurance (a state of affairs through which the inferior opponent is primed to struggle to the final man).
AVOIDABLE
Many people thought (naively, it has turned out) that the struggle was avoidable, particularly as Iran and the US have been engaged in talks brokered by Oman. However what occurred? Whereas American diplomats have been sitting throughout from Iranian diplomats in Geneva, the US army buildup was taking place concurrently with the peace talks. Iran’s Overseas Minister, Abbas Araghchi, mentioned publicly that even when his nation’s supreme chief, Khamenei, have been killed, the federal government wouldn’t fall.
America sat on the negotiating desk and watched Iran comply with zero stockpiling and full IAEA verification — and nonetheless went forward to launch the biggest air marketing campaign within the Center East in a technology. In response, Iran is now concentrating on the infrastructure that retains your complete Gulf area alive. And it has activated its proxies within the area. Believing that there’s nothing extra to barter, Iran is poised to struggle to the bitter finish except, maybe, the remainder of the world is ready to guarantee it that it might by no means come underneath assault sooner or later once more (which is a tall order).
Iran can’t militarily defeat a mixture of the US and Israel, however it may make it unimaginable for the 2 allies to maintain an costly, long-drawn struggle that negatively impacts the world financial system due to the strategic location of Iran.
Based on Jiang Xueqin, a historian and geopolitical theorist who runs a YouTube channel known as Predictive Historical past, “Iran sees the battle as a calculated alternative to unify its fractured inhabitants underneath a nationalist banner, to expel American affect from the area completely, and to bleed the USA financially and militarily till Washington has no alternative however to depart. Iran doesn’t must win on the battlefield. Iran wants the USA to remain lengthy sufficient that the price of staying turns into politically and financially unimaginable.”
ENVIRONMENT
Within the midst of all this, the atmosphere is taking a bashing which can take generations to get well from. The battle has generated a serious regional environmental disaster with implications for different elements of the planet. Along with the destruction of bodily property, the struggle has triggered a sequence of transboundary ecological disasters, together with however not restricted to the next:
Atmospheric air pollution and “black rain” attributable to strikes on oil storage services in Shahran and Sohanak, releasing large plumes of soot, sulphur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides.
Dispersal of carcinogenic compounds like benzene and PFAS into the air, elevating fears of a rise in most cancers charges and power lung illness for many years.
Useful resource Diversion: Billions of {dollars} beforehand earmarked for “inexperienced” transitions within the Gulf are being diverted to defence and reconstruction.
Marine and coastal despoliation.
Agricultural Impression: Contaminated “black rain” and poisonous runoff have permeated Iranian farmland, posing a long-term threat to meals safety and contaminating groundwater layers
World Local weather and Coverage Repercussions: Carbon Spike: Navy operations are estimated to contribute roughly 5.5% of world emissions.
Desalination Disaster: Over 100 million individuals within the area depend upon desalination for ingesting water. If desalination crops are taken out, a critical humanitarian disaster will ensue.
Oil Slicks: Torpedo assaults on vessels, such because the Iranian frigate Dena, off the coast of Sri Lanka, have created 20 km lengthy oil slicks. Within the Gulf, strikes on tankers and port infrastructure at Bandar Abbas have leaked lots of of hundreds of barrels into the ocean.
Acoustic Air pollution: Intense naval exercise and high-decibel army sonar (reaching as much as 235 dB) are disrupting marine life.
Soil and Groundwater Contamination
Relapse into Coal: Disruptions to Center Jap fuel and oil have compelled nations like India to pivot again to coal, undermining international net-zero commitments.
The response of African nations has assorted from selective neutrality (see no evil, communicate no evil, and listen to no evil) and outright condemnation of Iranian retaliation concentrating on Gulf states with US army bases whereas remaining silent on the assassination of the 86-year-old Iranian chief to South Africa’s outright condemnation of the US/Israel’s “anticipatory self-defence”.
The struggle has triggered a “balance-of-payments” disaster for a lot of African states. With oil costs hovering between $100 and $120 per barrel, the pump value of petrol is getting past the attain of many individuals. In Nigeria, even with Dangote refinery, petrol costs have spiked to over N1,200/N1,300 per litre. The federal government is making extra money from oil exports whereas the pockets of the residents are being picked on the pumps.
International locations like Senegal, Zambia, and Eritrea are at excessive threat of depleting international trade reserves on account of rising import payments. With the Strait of Hormuz functionally impaired, 1/3 of the worldwide fertiliser commerce is in danger, forcing nations like South Africa and Morocco to scramble for non-Gulf provides to forestall a 2027 meals disaster.
TRIPLE THREATS
This isn’t our struggle in Africa. Our individuals shouldn’t be having appointments with avoidable dying on account of the continued Gulf struggle. The African Union (AU) has properly shifted its focus to the lots of of hundreds of African migrant employees within the Gulf and demanded “protected passage” and safety for these nationals as Iranian drones goal regional aviation hubs.
Operation Epic Fury has essentially altered Nigeria’s {economic} trajectory for the primary half of the yr. As of mid-March 2026, petrol pump costs have already jumped from roughly N774 to between N1,200 and N1,500 per litre in main cities like Lagos and Abuja. Diesel (AGO) spiked to N1,620 per litre. That is significantly damaging as a result of diesel powers the vans that transfer meals and the turbines that energy our industries. Analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, petrol may hit N2,000 per litre by July 2026.
The struggle is hitting Nigerian agriculture by gasoline prices, fertiliser shortage, and the upcoming lean season (June–August). Meals costs are projected to rise by one other 30–35% by June. With the Center East being a major supply of urea and phosphate, the disruption of Gulf transport has despatched fertiliser costs hovering. Many smallholder farmers could also be compelled to plant with out enough inputs, which is able to result in a smaller harvest in late 2026.
Specialists estimate that if the struggle continues for an additional six months, 20–25 million Nigerians will want meals help by August 2026.
The fats prayer on all Nigerian lips now’s that the oil windfall will probably be prudently managed to realize the best good for the best variety of Nigerians.
So assist us God!