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WASHINGTON – US President Donald Trump said he will send representatives to Pakistan for talks to end the Iran war on the evening of April 20, while again threatening to strike civilian infrastructure if Tehran does not agree to a deal.
“We’re offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge, in Iran,” he said in a social media post early on April 19.
The US leader told Fox News that US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff will head to Islamabad for talks on April 21 that could last until April 22. The New York Post reported that Mr Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner will also participate in the talks to end a war that has killed thousands.
The announcement came after Iran reversed its decision to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in response to a US blockade.
The stand-off over Hormuz – through which about a fifth of the world’s oil flowed before the US-Israeli war on Iran – threatens to deepen the global energy crisis and undermine expectations of an imminent peace deal.
Hormuz is one of several unresolved issues in peace talks, including Iran’s nuclear programme and Israel’s ongoing invasion of Lebanon.
“Ships are awaiting instructions from Iran’s armed forces to determine whether they can pass through the route,” Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency reported on April 19.
Still, late on April 18, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who led the Iranian delegation in talks with the US earlier in April in Pakistan, said that while gaps “remain significant”, the negotiations are making progress.
He added that Iran’s armed forces are prepared to act even as discussions take place.
“It is impossible for others to pass through the Strait of Hormuz while we cannot,” he said in a televised address, referring to the US naval blockade.
Meanwhile, the US military is preparing to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters in the coming days to pressure Iran into reopening Hormuz, the Wall Street Journal reported on April 18, citing anonymous American officials.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the Journal’s reporting.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Navy issued a statement on the afternoon of April 18 warning vessels not to leave their anchorages in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, and that approaching the strait “will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and the violating vessel will be targeted”.
“They wanted to close up the strait again like they’ve been doing for years and they can’t blackmail us,” Mr Trump told reporters on April 18 about Iran, although the strait was fully open until the US and Israel began their bombing campaign seven weeks ago.
“We’ll have some information by the end of the day, you know. We’re talking to them. We’re taking a tough stand.”
The developments of the last 72 hours illustrate the unpredictable nature of the conflict, as well as the erratic – and sometimes contradictory – nature of Mr Trump’s comments.
The President on April 17 said a deal with Iran was all but agreed to, including concessions Tehran has never publicly made, signalling he was ready to sign and move on to domestic issues. He even told ABC News that he trusted the Iranians, a group whose civilisation he just recently threatened to wipe out.
But crucially, Mr Trump left a blockade of the strait in place until an agreement was finalised.
Iran called the blockade a ceasefire violation and moved to close the waterway again. That prompted Mr Trump’s latest diatribe, in which he renewed threats on Iran’s civilian infrastructure if they did not cut a deal.
There were also signs the ceasefire in Lebanon – linked to Iran’s decision to allow Hormuz traffic – may be fraying. The Israel Defence Forces said it struck “saboteurs” approaching its troops in violation of the truce.
Momentum for a lasting peace had been building late last week, but cracks began to emerge on April 18 with Iran’s criticism of the continued US blockade.
The British Navy soon after said a tanker was approached by IRGC gunboats before being fired at, adding that the vessel and its crew were safe. A container ship was hit by an unknown projectile in a separate incident off the coast of Oman, it said.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said the country’s “navy stands ready to make enemies taste the bitterness of new defeats” in a statement marking National Army Day. It was not clear if his message was in direct response to developments surrounding Hormuz.
Iran is in control of the strait and will secure its rights “either at the negotiating table or in the field”, Iranian First Vice-President Mohammad Reza Aref said, according to the semi-official Mehr news agency.
“While a deal appears to be in sight that may bring an end to the current round of US-Iran hostilities and relief to energy markets, it’s unlikely to result in a full or lasting peace,” Bloomberg Economics analysts, including Ms Jennifer Welch, wrote in a report. “We assess any deal will be limited and fragile.”
Oil, fuel and natural gas prices plunged on hopes that the latest developments would mean an end to the war and more energy supplies could transit safely through Hormuz. Brent crude dropped 9 per cent on April 17 to around US$90 a barrel. Diesel prices in the US and Europe also fell.
In a notable shift, real-world oil prices also eased significantly alongside headline futures prices.
On April 17, dated Brent, the world’s most important physical price, fell below US$100 a barrel for the first time since March 11. Stocks extended their rally on speculation the war would soon end.
One proposal under discussion is for the US to release US$20 billion (S$25 billion) in frozen Iranian funds in return for Tehran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium, Axios reported, citing two US officials and two other unidentified sources briefed on the talks.
Mr Trump pushed back on that idea in a phone interview with Bloomberg on April 17, repeatedly saying “no” when asked if he would release the US$20 billion. BLOOMBERG