Can the US and Iran conclude a lasting deal to end the war?
As the clock runs down on a two-week ceasefire agreed between the US and Iran, the key question is whether they can reach an accord to end a war that has killed thousands of people and sparked a global energy crunch.
While talks in Pakistan concluded without a deal, the two sides are considering extending their truce by another fortnight to allow more time to negotiate a peace agreement, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The current ceasefire has largely held since it began on April 8.
But there are some major pressure points that could test its durability and stand in the way of a longer-lasting solution.
Here are some of the hurdles to permanently resolving the conflict.
After the war began, Iran choked off access to this crucial waterway that normally handles around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply, sending energy prices soaring.
It continued to move its own crude exports through Hormuz and only allowed certain other vessels to cross the strait, often after talks for safe passage and sometimes after requesting payments of as much as US$2 million (S$2.55 million).
As daily traffic remained severely constrained in spite of the ceasefire, and after the failure of talks in Pakistan, the US implemented a blockade of ships that have called at or are heading to Iranian ports.
This is designed to curb Iran’s oil exports and apply economic pressure on the regime in Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a toll-free zone for all vessels.
The strategy could backfire as the blockade risks further reducing what was already a trickle of ships passing through Hormuz.
Iran has also threatened to retaliate by disrupting shipping in the Red Sea – a route that has been a vital alternative to Hormuz for Saudi Arabia to keep exporting its oil.
Iran is unlikely to give up its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz – and by extension the global economy – easily or without significant concessions from the US.
It has endured extended periods of low oil exports before, including during US President Donald Trump’s first term, when he pursued a “maximum pressure” strategy of harsh sanctions.
Even if the blockade forces Iran to relent, it will take time for Hormuz crossings to resume in earnest.
Shipowners will need to be convinced that their crews and vessels can transit safely without being targeted by missiles, drones or sea mines.
A large backlog of ships has also accumulated on both sides of the strait.
Mr Trump said the talks in Pakistan ended unsuccessfully because Iran refused to give up its nuclear programme.
The US is pushing for Iran to be stripped of its nuclear capabilities – except for the civilian power plant at Bushehr – so that it cannot produce an atomic bomb.
The Trump administration wants Iran to stop all enrichment of uranium and hand over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium for removal from the country.
The New York Times, citing people familiar with the negotiations, reported that the US proposed a 20-year suspension of all nuclear activity at the Islamabad talks, while Iran countered with a moratorium of up to five years.
Iran has long denied that it wants to develop nuclear weapons – a claim met with scepticism by some Western governments. It insists that it has a right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes.
The last time the United Nations nuclear watchdog was able to verify Iran’s uranium reserves was prior to the US and Israeli strikes in June 2025.
Inspectors determined that Iran had amassed 441kg of uranium enriched to 60 per cent, which, if processed further, would have been enough material for around a dozen nuclear bombs. The current location and condition of this stockpile is unclear.
Israel also agreed to suspend its attacks on Iran for two weeks, but there is disagreement over whether the truce includes Lebanon, where Israel is waging a parallel conflict against Iran-backed Hezbollah militants.
Iran and Pakistan, a key mediator of the ceasefire, said that Lebanon is covered by the pause in fighting, while Israel and the US disputed that.
Shortly after the truce was announced, Israel unleashed its largest assault against Hezbollah since the start of the Iran war.
Sustained conflict in Lebanon risks undermining any US effort to wind down its hostilities with Iran.
Iranian officials have said that Israel’s ongoing Lebanon offensive constitutes a violation of the ceasefire agreement.
Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian vowed that his country will “never abandon its Lebanese brothers and sisters”.
While Israel and Lebanon held direct talks for the first time in more than three decades on April 14, there was no breakthrough in the US-hosted negotiations.
Lebanon wants a ceasefire before discussing longer-term issues. Israel has refused to pause attacks on Hezbollah and has demanded that the group disarm.
The US wants Iran to limit its ballistic missile programme.
These weapons pose a conventional military threat that can reach beyond the Middle East, and could be used as a delivery system for a nuclear warhead, if Iran wanted to develop such capabilities.
The Trump administration is also demanding that Iran stops arming and funding militias in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, both of which are designated terrorist organisations by the US.
Iran views these proxies as parts of its “axis of resistance” to project its influence in the Middle East.
Iran’s other conditions for a peace deal include a lifting of sanctions – something the US previously indicated it’s open to – as well as demands that are likely non-starters, such as compensation for war damage and a withdrawal of American combat forces from the region.
Mr Trump may be willing to compromise on his maximalist demands and leave some key issues unresolved as he comes under political and economic pressure to find an off-ramp from the war.
The conflict pushed US gasoline prices above US$4 a gallon for the first time since 2022, squeezing consumers ahead of the midterm elections later in 2026. BLOOMBERG