Nigeria’s trade relationship with the United States recorded a dramatic turnaround in June 2026, with the country posting a N797.50 billion trade surplus, the highest monthly surplus between both countries and a sharp reversal of 14 consecutive months of deficits.
Analysis of foreign trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that Nigeria’s exports to the US jumped to N1.19 trillion in June, from N216.48 billion in May, representing a 451.1 per cent month-on-month increase.
In contrast, imports from the US rose more moderately, from N265.17 billion to N395.60 billion.
The result was an N846.19 billion improvement in Nigeria’s trade balance within one month, from a N48.69 billion deficit in May to the June surplus.
The surge was largely driven by a dramatic increase in urea exports, which rose 203 per cent quarter-on-quarter to N1.07 trillion in Q2 2026, from N353.04 billion in Q1.
Crude petroleum exports, however, declined 13 per cent to N529.31billion. Other products, including petroleum gases worth N78.54 billion, soybean products and natural rubber, also contributed to the export expansion.
An economist and trade analyst, Kelvin Emmanuel, said the figures demonstrate the potential of Nigeria’s non-crude exports but cautioned against interpreting one strong month as a structural transformation.
“The urea numbers are significant because they show that Nigeria can generate substantial foreign exchange from value-added and non-crude commodities. But the sustainability of this trend will depend on production capacity, logistics and access to international markets,” he said.
Another trade analyst, Kunle Jaiyesimi, said Nigeria must use the opportunity to deepen export diversification.
“A surplus in one month is encouraging, but what matters is whether Nigeria can sustain export growth across several product categories. The country needs to move from dependence on crude oil to a broader export base,” he said.
The turnaround is particularly striking when compared with March 2026, when Nigeria recorded its largest monthly deficit with the US of N1.10 trillion, as imports reached N1.55 trillion while exports stood at N447.06 billion.
Despite June’s performance, Nigeria remained in deficit with the US during the first half of 2026. Imports totaled about N3.81 trillion, compared with exports of N2.91 trillion, leaving a deficit of approximately N902.52 billion, 33.3 per cent higher than the first half of 2025 deficit.
The development also comes amid a new 12.5 per cent US tariff on Nigerian exports. However, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) said the impact could be limited because crude oil, LNG and other petroleum products are exempt, accounting for more than 80 per cent of Nigeria’s merchandise exports to the US.