Nigeria’s exterior reserves are projected to rise by about $6bn from the $44bn which it was as of the top of the 2025 fiscal interval, because the Central {Bank} of Nigeria intensifies financial, international trade and financial-sector reforms aimed toward attracting international capital inflows, sustaining trade charge stability and supporting {economic} progress.
The projection is contained within the CBN 2026 Macroeconomic Doc for Nigeria seen by THE POINT.
The doc additionally forecasts that the financial system will broaden by 4.49 per cent in 2026, whereas headline inflation is predicted to average to about 12.94 per cent, pushed by easing meals costs, decrease premium motor spirit prices and improved macroeconomic coverage coordination.
In keeping with the apex {bank}, the outlook displays continued good points from broad-based structural reforms, a progressively easing financial coverage stance and sustained efforts to enhance the enterprise atmosphere, increase investor confidence and help private-sector-led progress.
Globally, {economic} progress slowed barely in 2025, with output estimated at 3.20 per cent, down from 3.30 per cent in 2024, due largely to lingering commerce tensions and weaker demand in main economies.
International inflation, nonetheless, moderated to 4.20 per cent, supported by decrease power costs and the continued normalisation of world provide chains. {Financial} circumstances eased in lots of economies amid moderating inflation and fewer restrictive financial insurance policies.
Regardless of the difficult international atmosphere, Nigeria’s financial system remained resilient in 2025. The CBN estimated that actual GDP progress rose to three.89 per cent, in contrast with 3.38 per cent in 2024, supported by improved efficiency in each the oil and non-oil sectors.
Progress was underpinned by increased home production, improved coverage coordination and gradual reforms throughout key sectors.
Inflationary pressures eased in the course of the 12 months following the rebasing of the Client Worth Index by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics. Inflation, which stood at 24.48 per cent in January 2025, is estimated to have averaged 21.26 per cent for the 12 months.
The moderation was attributed to a good financial coverage stance, relative trade charge stability and improved coordination between financial and monetary authorities.
Within the {financial} sector, progress in financial aggregates slowed in 2025 as key rates of interest rose, reflecting tight cash market circumstances.
Nevertheless, the CBN eased its coverage stance in September 2025 to help home progress and funding as inflationary pressures confirmed indicators of moderation.
The banking system, the apex {bank} stated remained secure, with key {financial} soundness indicators broadly aligned with regulatory benchmarks.
The CBN stated this stability was supported by enhanced oversight capabilities, macroprudential pointers and reforms aimed toward strengthening the resilience of the {financial} system.
On the fiscal entrance, the doc confirmed that Nigeria’s fiscal area improved in 2025, pushed by coverage and institutional reforms, comparatively secure crude oil costs and improved home oil production.
Whole public debt stood at 33.98 per cent of GDP as at end-June 2025, with home debt accounting for 52.86 per cent and exterior debt 47.14 per cent.
The exterior sector recorded a optimistic efficiency, with the stability of funds posting a surplus of about $5.80bn in 2025. Exterior reserves rose to an estimated $45.01bn, in contrast with $40.19bn in 2024, supported by increased capital inflows, improved export receipts, home reforms and increasing native refining capability. Relative stability within the international trade market was additionally sustained in the course of the 12 months.
Wanting forward, the CBN described 2026 as a practical window for macroeconomic stabilisation. Progress is projected to speed up to 4.49 per cent, supported by structural reforms, a extra accommodative financial coverage atmosphere and elevated funding within the oil sector.
Improved safety surveillance in oil-producing areas and good points from enhanced home refining capability are additionally anticipated to help output progress.
Headline inflation is projected to say no considerably to a mean of 12.94 per cent in 2026, reflecting expectations of decrease meals costs, improved provide circumstances and easing power prices.
Financial aggregates in 2026 are anticipated to be influenced primarily by trade charge actions, fiscal operations, election-related spending and the continued implementation of prudential measures. The capital market outlook stays optimistic, supported by the continuing {bank} recapitalisation train, rising investor confidence and coverage measures aimed toward fostering progress.
The fiscal outlook for 2026 is optimistic, pushed by sustained non-oil income mobilisation and the continued implementation of the Nigeria Tax Act, 2025. Federal Authorities retained income and expenditure are projected at ₦35.51tn and ₦47.64tn, respectively, leading to a provisional deficit of ₦12.14 trillion, equal to three.01 per cent of GDP.
Public debt is projected to rise reasonably to 34.68 per cent of GDP by end-2026, reflecting anticipated new borrowings. The CBN harassed the necessity to make sure that debt technique stays aligned with fiscal guidelines to safeguard sustainability.
Externally, the optimistic pattern is predicted to proceed in 2026, supported by sturdy exports, regular remittance inflows, elevated oil and fuel output, improved home refining capability and rising international demand.
The present account surplus is projected to rise to $18.81bn, whereas portfolio inflows and exterior borrowings are anticipated to maintain the {financial} account in a web borrowing place of $10.15bn.
The apex {bank}, nonetheless, warned that the outlook stays topic to draw back dangers, together with international {financial} market volatility, geopolitical tensions, climate-related shocks, fiscal slippages and potential disruptions to crude oil production. Rising non-performing loans might additionally pose dangers to {financial} stability amid ongoing banking sector recapitalisation.
In response, the CBN reaffirmed its dedication to balancing value stability with output progress in 2026, deploying acceptable coverage devices to draw international funding, consolidate international trade market stability and strengthen the resilience of the {financial} system.