Nigeria’s crude oil production in October reached 1.401 million barrels per day, a slight improve from the 1.39 million bpd recorded in September, in response to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Nations Month-to-month Oil Market Report launched on Wednesday.
Regardless of the development, Nigeria as soon as once more failed to satisfy its OPEC-assigned crude oil production quota, marking the third consecutive monthof underperformance. The final time the nation met its goal was in July 2025.
OPEC information exhibits that for the third quarter of 2025, Nigeria averaged 1.444 million bpd, down from 1.481 million bpd in Q2 and 1.468 million bpd in Q1.
The figures underscore the nation’s continued battle to maintain production progress regardless of new investments and government-led intervention efforts within the upstream sector.
The OPEC report additionally reveals a shift in world dynamics, noting that worldwide oil provide in October exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels per day, reversing the earlier month’s development the place provide fell brief by 400,000 barrels per day.
Based on OPEC, the change was partly pushed by elevated production from non-OPEC international locations. The secretariat in Vienna famous that 890,000 barrels per day have been added globally, greater than half coming from the USA.
In October, Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, disclosed that the nation plans to formally interact OPEC to request a rise in its production quota—from the present 1.5 million bpd to 2 million bpd.
Lokpobiri defined that current enhancements within the trade, together with the deployment of drilling rigs, revival of idle oil fields and new investments from worldwide oil firms, display Nigeria’s functionality to extend production.
Nigeria continues to face hurdles that restrict its oil production capability. Pipeline vandalism, crude theft, ageing infrastructure, and inadequate funding for key initiatives all contribute to the present shortfall. Regardless of elevated surveillance in oil-producing areas, output stays beneath pre-2020 ranges when Nigeria frequently exceeded 1.8 million bpd.
Failing to satisfy OPEC quotas impacts Nigeria’s international alternate earnings, as crude oil stays its largest income supply. Nevertheless, the present production development suggests a gradual although modest rebound that might enhance authorities fiscal income if sustained.
With ongoing refinery rehabilitation, the anticipated graduation of personal refineries equivalent to Dangote’s, and renewed deal with upstream actions, analysts imagine Nigeria might doubtlessly rebound stronger in 2026, if the nation efficiently resolves safety and infrastructure obstacles.
Whereas October’s figures fall wanting OPEC’s expectations, they signify what trade gamers describe as a cautious however notable transfer towards restoration—one that will affect the trajectory of Nigeria’s oil sector within the coming months.