Out of workplace, just a few will deny that the previous president continues to wield appreciable affect among the many political elite at house and is effectively regarded overseas, the place he’s an envoy of world peace and a troubleshooter.”
The quote above is part of President Bola Tinubu’s “particular tribute” to former President Olusegun Obasanjo on the event of the latter’s 88th birthday on March 5, 2025.
Though it has been six months since these encomiums have been showered, Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, had additionally described Obasanjo as “a unprecedented chief and statesman” who has made monumental contributions to Nigeria’s growth.
Tinubu additionally identified the “appreciable affect” Obasanjo wields among the many political elite, a scenario that has prompted political analysts to deduce that the Commander-in-Chief is conscious that windfall will as soon as once more thrust Obasanjo to the forefront at important junctures within the 2027 common elections, particularly because it issues the presidential election.
Analysts have mentioned that characteristically of Obasanjo, a alternative will quickly be made between supporting the federal government of the day or backing up the opposition who’re already mounting a “siege” on the gates of the presidential villa.
Though it isn’t completely clear about who Obasanjo will assist in 2027, a sparring match he had with the Tinubu-led Federal Authorities in November, 2024 had tacitly inspired some opponents of the present administration to conclude that Obasanjo will assist the opposition.
Throughout a keynote tackle on the Chinua Achebe Management Discussion board held on the Yale College, Connecticut, USA, Obasanjo had issued a scathing critique of the Nigerian state, describing the nation’s standing as a “failing state” below Tinubu.
Obasanjo additionally blamed Tinubu and the rapid previous president of Nigeria, the late Muhammadu Buhari, for the nation’s {economic} woes, claiming that the 2 males set Nigeria on a downward trajectory.
He additionally referred to Tinubu and Buhari by the nicknames “Emi lokan” and “Baba go gradual,” respectively, maybe to color a satirical image of the 2 males for his or her “mismanagement” of the nation.
Obasanjo then added, “The failing state standing of Nigeria is confirmed and manifestly indicated for all to see.”
Nonetheless, Tinubu additionally used Obasanjo’s birthday tribute to clarify that his (Obasanjo) “interventions” within the polity have been helpful, and advised that he (Tinubu) is normally inclined to present the thumbs as much as the previous chief’s “checks on management.”
“Generally controversial, former President Obasanjo’s common interventions in nationwide affairs have helped form public insurance policies and acted as a examine on management.
“I thank Normal Obasanjo for his onerous contributions to Nigeria. I commend him for his statesmanship and management,” the tribute famous.
Some political commentators have speculated that as a rule it’s the opposition and the politicians of their ranks that always stand a greater likelihood of getting Obasanjo’s nod and endorsements.
Those that assist this notion declare that in 2013, Obasanjo had written an 18-page open letter to a different former president, Goodluck Jonathan, titled “Earlier than It Is Too Late,” and accused the Otuoke, Bayelsa State-born politician of not solely being inept but additionally failing to ship democratic dividends to Nigerians.
Obasanjo, who additionally warned Jonathan to not take Nigerians as a right, had gone on to endorse Buhari’s candidature, a scenario that helped the late army ruler to beat Jonathan within the 2015 presidential election.
After Buhari was inaugurated as President, Obasanjo wrote an open letter congratulating the then new chief, however that didn’t cease him, three years later in 2018, from issuing a press assertion that introduced consideration on the nation’s dwindling fortunes below Buhari.
Obasanjo additionally mentioned on the time that he had based a political stress group, Coalition for Nigeria, he hoped can be used for salvaging and redeeming the nation.
The coalition later went partisan when it fused into the African Democratic Congress and in line with Obasanjo, the transfer was to result in “fascinating change within the Nigeria polity and governance.”
Obasanjo’s “withdrawal” later from the ADC, and previous to the 2019 presidential election, made the occasion look peculiar and unable to impress or make an impression within the election.
When the 2023 presidential election got here knocking on the door of Nigerians, Obasanjo endorsed the then candidate of the Labour Social gathering, Peter Obi, though many Nigerians had urged him to assist his kinsman and APC candidate, Tinubu.
“Tinubu ultimately coasted house to victory within the ballot, however it was evident that Obasanjo’s “wings” had additionally helped Obi to fly, particularly in some components of the South West.Do not forget that the 2 males, after they each got here to energy in 1999, didn’t see eye to eye due to the legitimacy, or in any other case, surrounding the creation of further native authorities areas in Lagos”
Barely a yr after Tinubu was sworn in – and Obasanjo firing the primary salvo in 2024 to criticise the administration – many Nigerians are of the opinion that, going additional, the APC and Tinubu would have many sleepless nights courtesy of Obasanjo’s nationalistic zeal.
To buttress this place, Obasanjo has confirmed that he won’t be sheathing his devastating sword of public criticisms anytime quickly in 2025.
In August, he accused Tinubu, in his new ebook, Nigeria: Previous and Future, of following the identical path of poor governance as Buhari, warning that the previous Lagos governor’s administration is “competing in inefficiency” with that of his predecessor.
The permutation now, which some analysts say is fraught with potential errors, is that Obasanjo would as soon as once more assist one of many candidates the opposition would current in 2027.
Simply eight days in the past, Obi, one of the vital influential opposition figures, had a closed-door assembly with Obasanjo at his penthouse residence inside the Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library in Abeokuta, Ogun State.
The Nationwide Coordinator of the Obidient Motion, Yunusa Tanko, who was amongst those that accompanied Obi, later described the assembly as a gathering of “like minds” targeted on the state of the nation.
“It was a gathering of like minds. Keep in mind Mr. Peter Obi served below the management of Chief Obasanjo, so there was a necessity for the 2 of them to take a seat and focus on easy methods to rescue the nation,” Tanko mentioned.
A political analyst, Alex Nwadike, informed THE POINT, “Many Nigerians could have forgotten, however from means again, the connection between Obasanjo and Tinubu has been strained.
“Do not forget that the 2 males, after they each got here to energy in 1999, didn’t see eye to eye due to the legitimacy, or in any other case, surrounding the creation of further native authorities areas in Lagos.
“Tinubu needed it however Obasanjo mentioned no.
“In defiance of Obasanjo, he created Native Council Growth Areas and Obasanjo determined to withhold statutory allocations meant for Lagos.
“In 2024, I assumed the 2 leaders had buried the hatchet after Obasanjo was seen carrying a cap with the long-lasting Tinubu insignia.
“I additionally noticed Obasanjo come to Lagos in June final yr to felicitate with Tinubu’s spouse, Remi Tinubu, throughout Sallah celebration, and I used to be excited that every one was effectively between these nice males.”
One other political analyst, Muyiwa Bello, mentioned, “Obasanjo remains to be an influence participant in Nigerian politics. His phrases carry a lot weight.
“I want Obasanjo would assist Tinubu in 2027, however I perceive that if needs have been horses, beggars would experience.
“Furthermore, I additionally perceive that Obasanjo just isn’t happy with the course the nation is transferring, however the unhealthy scenario is step by step altering within the nation.
“I hope that by the point Obasanjo picks up his pen once more to write down one other open letter, the progress made by this administration can be extra seen for all Nigerians to see.
“Tinubu wants Obasanjo’s endorsement within the coming election – that’s the easy fact. Anybody who says in any other case, I’m afraid, just isn’t being honest.”